Too Soon?

Tonight on twitter, I saw former MO Senator Jeff Smith comment that Josh Mandel of Ohio “is about as likely to be a Senator as Wendy Long [NY].”

Only when I expanded his quote did I see that he was answering a question with some snark, rather than pontificating independently.

Wendy Long is a candidate that has little/no chance of beating Kirsten Gillibrand. Josh Mandel, however, has a much better shot of unseating Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Smith’s comments are either uninformed or absurd.

A cursory review:

Wendy Long is down 37 points in a recent poll and has $96,411 in the bank. Kirsten Gillibrand has $10.5 million in the bank.

Josh Mandel is down 4 points in a July 18 Rasmussen poll. Huffington Post notes “Brown has raised $15.3 million to date, compared to Mandel’s $9.9 million. He also has about $6.5 million on hand, compared to Mandel’s $4.9 million.” Mandel recently claimed, and Politifact found “Mostly True,” that Sherrod Brown’s approval ratings have plummeted.

So, for Jeff Smith to say that Mandel is about as likely to be a Senator as Wendy Long is asinine. This from a guy who has a PhD in political science. My snarky reply is below. It’s snarky because Smith was sentenced to jail for a year and a day for obstruction of justice.

Too soon?

I’ll have you know that I was considering saying “You’d know about unrealistic bids first hand, you thought you could be a Congressman.” But that would give him too much credit. He was wrong about his chances and wrong about Mandel’s.

But what do I know? 

Update: John Celock notes in HuffPo that OHSEN has seen some of the highest independent expenditures of any Senate race, a sign that it is competitive.

Update #2: Jeff responds. I guess my comments hit too close to home. His switch to “wanna bet” is a nice way of avoiding the fact that the numbers don’t confirm his prediction that the likelihood of Mandel winning is “about as likely” as Wendy Long. Smoke and mirrors. Did Jeff study statistics?

My response:

Update #3: The snark-fest has subsided and Mr. Smith and I have agreed to a gentleman’s bet of a beer at Humphrey’s.

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