Could GOP Crossovers Have Ousted Moran?

Earlier today, I blogged about my cross over vote for Bruce Shuttleworth. As I noted, I didn’t vote for him because I like his views — he’s crazy. Rather, I voted for him because I absolutely do not like Jim Moran, my current Congressman. Also, I (accurately) predicted that George Allen would handily win the Virginia Republican Senate primary, which is why I felt safe to cast this vote.

So, was my hypothesis — that voting in this Democratic primary might be a statistically more likely way to oust Jim Moran from power — true? With 99% of the results in, and Shuttleworth losing by larger margins than Republican Patrick Murray did in the 2010 general, I’ve concluded my hypothesis was false.

Let’s adjust this a bit, just for fun. What if every Republican voter who cast a vote today in Virginia’s 8th Congressional District decided to vote in the Democratic primary instead of the Republican? Let’s also assume that, because they don’t like Jim Moran, they’d vote for Shuttleworth.

What would happen?

Well, if every Republican in VA 8 abandoned the Senate primary and voted for Shuttleworth, he still would have lost 51 to 49.

The results for the Senate primary in my hypothesis would not have changed significantly from the actual total.

Now, I know that it’s unrealistic to assume that such a scenario would happen. Could it? Sure. But it would be unlikely and mitigated by other factors. (i.e. Republican interference, which wouldn’t be by stealth, would increase turnout for Moran.)

Do I regret my vote? Not really. I knew Allen would win, and he would have been the recipient of my vote otherwise. However, I do plan to take a count of how many Democratic mailers I get, and the money wasted, just for voting in this primary. 

 

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